Residential house price trends 2019

MortgageGym 23/12/2019

The HMRC publish UK Property Transactions Statistics on a monthly basis. The chart below is a representation of the Quarterly UK residential property transactions for the last 10 years, to the third quarter of 2019.

The chart shows residential property transaction completions of £40,000 or above1, not seasonally adjusted5.

  1. Property transactions are allocated to the month in which transactions were completed.
  2. Not all England and Northern Ireland Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) returns for transactions in the latest month will have been received by HMRC when figures are compiled. An estimate is therefore made to account for these unreceived returns. This estimate is based upon an average of transactional change over the previous financial year. Because of this, month-on-month changes for the most recent data should not be given too much weight. Although HMRC endeavour to provide the most accurate estimates, the inherent seasonality of property transactions mean that upward or downward revisions are expected in proceeding months.
  3. From April 2015, SDLT was replaced by Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) in Scotland and HMRC stopped collecting data for transactions in Scotland. HMRC are using LBTT data from Revenue Scotland to continue the series. However, there might be some discontinuities for the Scottish component of the series after April 2015. The number of LBTT transactions in July, August, September, October and November 2019 have been estimated by HMRC. This was due to the unavailability of LBTT data in time to produce these publications. This estimation was based upon transaction counts for July, August, September, October and November 2018 with year-on-growth estimated in line with England and Northern Ireland SDLT transactions. HMRC will endeavour to revise these months once more accurate figures become available.
  4. From April 2018, SDLT was replaced by Land Transaction Tax (LTT) in Wales and HMRC stopped collecting data for transactions in Wales. LTT transactions from April 2018 to the penultimate month have been taken from figures published by the Welsh Revenue Authority (WRA) (see 'Hyperlinks' subheading within 'R1 Background' tab for a link to this publication). The number of transactions in Wales have been estimated by HMRC for November 2019. This reflects a change in HMRC's methodology for providing Welsh transactions in the latest month. Prior to July 2019, transactions for the latest month had been grossed up from preliminary data received for the latest month. The new estimation is based upon transaction counts for November 2018 with year-on-growth estimated in line with the rest of the UK. HMRC will revise these estimated figures within future publications in line with future LTT figures as published by the WRA.
  5. UK property transactions are highly seasonal, with increased activity during summer months and less in winter. This annual pattern can occasionally mask underlying data series trends.